HUMAN AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT, cilt.23, ss.388-406, 2017 (SCI İndekslerine Giren Dergi)
The objectives of this study are the determination of forest fire risks with the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) and the mapping of risk levels with the use of geographic information systems (GIS). Socioeconomic, topographic, climatic, and stand structures have been taken into consideration as instrumental criteria in terms of fire risk. Each risk criteria and their sub-criteria membership grades have been determined with the fuzzy set theory. Five-scale fuzzy linguistic importance has been used for pairwise comparison matrices. Criterion weights have been mapped with the use of GIS, and a final risk map was established with weighted overlay analysis. Socioeconomic properties had the highest impact on fire risk with 35%. The high risk degree of this criterion manifests in shrublands with substantial fuel loads and young Calabrian pine forests in low elevation areas at the edge of roads, urban and urban periphery areas, south sloping, and steep sloped areas. The lowest risk degree was manifest in stands of cedar, black pine, and juniper forests, qualifying as old growth spreading in sub-mountain areas where land usage is rather low. Experiences regarding high accuracy fire risk determination and decision support approaches for fire risk management have been discussed and concluded in terms of applied FAHP and GIS procedures.